Re: Atta Mills leads 53.6%, Akufo-Addo 42.0% in latest polls
The 16th November 2008 “poll” released by a so-called Policy & Strategy Associates Inc. purportedly of London, UK with results stating the NDC’s Prof. Mills was in the lead with 53.6% and Akufo-Addo 42.0% can only be charitably described as bogus.
The “poll” report does not reveal which constituencies were visited and the number of constituencies visited. As a puerile attempt to arrest its fraudulence, the report tells us: “It must be noted that this polling exercise is the third research exercise sponsored by young Ghanaian professionals who are independent, multi-partisan working associates of the Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc. in the Diaspora.” No contact details of this group are provided.
The following are just a few of the inaccuracies detected through preliminary analysis undertaken by DI.
1. NON-EXISTENCE OF COMPANY Policy and Research Associates Inc. is nowhere on the radar. A preliminary check made by the Danquah Institute has drawn a blank on the existence of ‘Policy & Strategy Associates Inc anywhere in the world. The publication says it is a UK-based firm. Though the legal concept of incorporation is common across the globe, the term Inc (meaning Incorporated) is never used in the UK to refer to any registered organisation. So, Policy & Strategy Associates Inc. cannot be a British firm as claimed by the publication planted on www.ghanaweb.com and www.myjoyonline.com. In the United States, corporations are identified by the term "incorporated" (Inc.), in Germany, GmbH, and for much of Europe and Latin America it is SA.
The organisation does not appear to exist (no website nor postal address is mentioned).
2. WRONG MARGIN OF ERROR Analysing the data, statisticians of DI were quick to dismiss the ‘survey’ as a “shameless exercise of creative armchair opinion sampling.” No specific sample size is mentioned. The publishers give a range of sample sizes from about 720-765 per region. A ±4% margin of error, taking account of a minimum sample size of 7,000 to 7,200 or a maximum of 7,650 is woefully incorrect and insulting to the principles of sampling.
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to reality; that is, the figures for the whole population.
The margin of error is calculated from this formula: 0.98 = M.E √n Where n = 7,000, 7,200 or 7,650 (Sample Size)
The margin of error calculated with 7,000, 7,200 or 7,650 will give you a margin of error of ± 1.17%, ± 1.15% and ± 1.12% respectively which is totally way off ±4% stated by the supposed pollsters
3. EQUAL WEIGHTING Equal weighting of respondents across the ten regions of Ghana is highly unscientific (at least 700 respondents per region as it is supposed in this case). When you assign the statistical figures in percentages and count Upper West percentile equal to Ashanti Region, you are going to make kind of error that could be generously described as “Opinion Poll Rigging.” The authors are guilty of statistical illiteracy. It is mathematically lazy and disingenuous to equate the various regions when they have vast and varied sizes in number of registered voters. Perhaps their calculation was premised on the fact that each of the regions has one regional minister, rather than the fact that the number of districts, constituencies and registered voters differ from region to region.
4. INFORMAL INTERVIEWS AND SCIENTIFIC POLLING (CONTRADICTION) “Informal” and “scientific polling” as said to have been conducted by the supposed pollsters is highly contradictory. Informal interviews allude to the fact that there’s no structured questionnaire. It is like having a drink in a beer bar and taking the advantage to talk about politics.
5. SELECTION OF SAMPLE SIZE PER REGION What is the basis for selecting at least 700 respondents per region? Which constituencies in each region were selected? What informed the selection of constituencies? Do you pick only perceived NDC strongholds leaving out NPP, PNC or CPP strongholds?
6. What was the sampling method and how did they arrive at the sample size of 720-765 per region? What was the basis of deciding on this sample size?
The piece carries the authorship of a Prince Kassim, Associate & Report Editor, Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc Email: policystrategy@consultant.com. We would advise Ghanaians to go on the web and fine out a bit more about Consultant.com.
We would also hope that the websites that published the “polls” have direct contact details to Prince and would allow Ghanaians the benefit of probing.
Ghanaians have to be mindful of ghost pollsters. The temptation of creating a false impression that you are winning may be too much for some politicians to resist.
Asare Otchere-Darko Executive Director, Danquah Institute
Comments to follow!
Ghana: Election Statistics 1951-2004
08 February 1951 Legislative Assembly Election
Registered Voters: Not Available
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Invalid/Blank Votes: Not Available
Total Valid Votes: 663,069
The Convention People’s Party (CPP) won a plurality of seats in the election. No figures are available.
15 June 1954 Legislative Assembly Election
Registered Voters: Not Available
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
| Party | Number of Seats (104) |
| Convention People’s Party (CPP) | 71 |
| Northern People’s Party (NPP) | 12 |
| Togoland Congress (TC) | 02 |
| Ghana Congress Party (GCP) | 01 |
| Muslim Association Party (MAP) | 01 |
| Anlo Youth Association (AYA) | 01 |
| Independents | 16 |
17 July 1956 Legislative Assembly Election
Registered Voters 1,390,000 (approx.)
Total Votes (Voter Turnout) Not Available (approx. 50%)
Party Number of Seats (104)
Convention People’s Party (CPP) 71
Northern People’s Party (NPP) 15
National Liberation Movement (NLM) 12
Togoland Congress (TC) 02
Muslim Association Party (MAP) 01
Federation of Youth (FY) 01
Independents 02
27 April 1960 Plebiscite
Main Points: Presidential Republic, Increased Presidential Powers
Registered Voters 2,098,651
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Invalid/Blank Votes: Not Available
Total Valid Votes: 1,140,165
Results Number of Votes % of Votes
"Yes" Votes 1,008,740 88.47%
"No" Votes 131,425 11.53%
27 April 1960 Presidential Election
Registered Voters: 2,098,651
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Invalid/Blank Votes: Not Available
Total Valid Votes: 1,140,699
Candidate (Party) Number of Votes % of Votes
Kwame Nkrumah (CPP) 1,016,076 89.07%
Joseph Boakye Danquah (UP) 124,623 10.93%
31 January 1964 Constitutional Referendum
Main Points: Sole Legal Party, Increased Presidential Powers
Registered Voters: Not Available
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Invalid/Blank Votes: Not Available
Total Valid Votes: 2,776,372
Results Number of Votes % of Votes
"Yes" Votes 2,773,920 99.91%
"No" Votes 2,452 00.09%
Single Party Elections
Sole Legal Party: Convention People’s Party (CPP)
1965 Presidential Election (Kwame Nkrumah re-elected unopposed)
1965 National Assembly Election
29 August 1969 National Assembly Election
Registered Voters: 2,360,000 (approx.)
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Party % of Votes Number of Seats (140)
Progress Party (PP) 58.7% 105
National Alliance of Liberals (NAL) 30.4% 29
United Nationalist Party (UNP) 3.8% 02
People’s Action Party (PAP) 3.4% 02
All People’s Republican Party (APRP) 1.8% 01
Others 1.8% 01
30 March 1978 Referendum
Main Points: A union of civilian and military institutions in government
Official Question: "Do you approve whether or not some form of Union Government would become the basis of Ghana's political system?"
Registered Voters: 4,497,803
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Invalid/Blank Votes: Not Available
Total Valid Votes: 2,282,813
Results Number of Votes % of Votes
"Yes" Votes 1,372,427 60.11%
"No" Votes 910,386 39.89%
June & July 1979 Presidential Election
First Round (18 June 1979)
Registered Voters: 5,000,000 (approx.)
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Invalid/Blank Votes: Not Available
Total Valid Votes: 1,788,201
Second Round (09 July 1979)
Registered Voters: 5,000,000 (approx.)
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Candidate (Party) First Round Second Round
Number of Votes % of Votes % of Votes
Hilla Limann (PNP) 631,559 35.32% 62.0%
Victor Owusu (PFP) 533,928 29.86% 38.0%
William Ofori-Atta (UNC) 311,265 17.41% -
Frank Bernasko (ACP) 167,775 9.38% -
Alhaji Ibrahim Mahama (SDF) 66,445 3.72% -
John Bilson (TFP) 49,104 2.75% -
R.P. Baffour 8,812 0.49% -
Kwame Nyanteh 8,480 0.47% -
Mark Diamond Addy 5,959 0.33% -
Alhaji Ayannah 4,874 0.27% -
18 June 1979 National Assembly Election
Registered Voters: 5,000,000 (approx.)
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Party Number of Seats (140)
People's National Party (PNP) 71
Popular Front Party (PFP) 42
United National Convention (UNC) 13
Action Congress Party (ACP) 10
Social Democratic Front (SDF) 03
Independent 01
28 April 1992 Constitutional Referendum
Main Points: Multiparty System, Division of Powers
Registered Voters: 8,255,690
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Invalid/Blank Votes: Not Available
Total Valid Votes: 3,680,974
Results Number of Votes % of Votes
"Yes" Votes 3,408,119 92.59%
"No" Votes 272,855 07.41%
03 November 1992 Presidential Election
Registered Voters: 8,229,902
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): 4,127,876 (50.2%)
Candidate (Party) % of Votes
Jerry John Rawlings (NDC) 58.4%
Albert Adu Boahen (NPP) 30.4%
Hilla Limann (PNC) 6.7%
Kwabena Darko (NIP) 2.8%
Emmanuel Erskine (PHP) 1.7%
29 December 1992 Parliamentary Election*
Registered Voters: 7,336,846**
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): 2,059,415** (28.1%)
Party Number of Seats (200)
National Democratic Congress (NDC) 189
National Convention Party (NCP) 08
Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere (EGLE) 01
Independents 02
*The following opposition parties boycotted the election: New Patriotic Party (NPP), People’s National Convention (PNC), National Independence Party (NIP), and the People's Heritage Party (PHP).
**Registered Voters and Total Vote figures exclude 23 constituencies with unopposed candidates.
07 December 1996 Presidential Election
Registered Voters: 9,279,605
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (approx. 78%)
Candidate (Party) [Coalition] % of Vote
Jerry John Rawlings (NDC) 57.4%
John Agyekum Kufuor (NPP) [Grand Alliance] 39.6%
Edward Mahama (PNC) 3.0%
07 December 1996 Parliamentary Election
Registered Voters: Not Available
Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Party Number of Seats (200)
National Democratic Congress (NDC) 133
New Patriotic Party (NPP) 60
People’s Convention Party (PCP) 05
People’s National Convention (PNC) 01
Vacant* 01
*Voting was postponed in one constituency because of a legal dispute concerning the eligibility of candidates. The seat was subsequently won by the New Patriotic Party (NPP) in a by-election held in June 1997.
| December 2000 Presidential Election First Round (07 December 2000) Registered Voters: 10,698,652 Total Votes (Voter Turnout): 6,605,084 (61.7%) Invalid/Blank Votes: 104,214 Total Valid Votes: 6,500,870
Second Round (28 December 2000) Registered Voters: 10,698,652 Total Votes (Voter Turnout): 6,459,003 (60.4%) Invalid/Blank Votes: 77,616 Total Valid Votes: 6,381,387
Candidate (Party) First Round Second Round % of Votes Number of Votes % of Votes John Agyekum Kufuor (NPP) 48.4% 3,631,263 56.90% John Evans Atta Mills (NDC) 44.8% 2,750,124 43.10% Edward Mahama (PNC) 2.5% - - George Hagan (CPP) 1.8% - - Augustus Obuadum "Goosie" Tanoh (NRP) 1.1% - - Daniel Augustus Lartey (GCPP) 1.0% - - Charles Wereko-Brobby (UGM) 0.3% - -
07 December 2000 Parliamentary Election Registered Voters: 10,698,652 Total Votes (Voter Turnout): 6,633,306 (62.0%) Invalid/Blank Votes: 102,549 Total Valid Votes: 6,530,757
Party % of Votes Number of Seats (200) New Patriotic Party (NPP) 44.98% 99 National Democratic Congress (NDC) 41.21% 92 People’s National Convention (PNC) 3.44% 03 Convention People’s Party (CPP) 1.31% 01 National Reform Party (NRP) 2.25% - United Ghana Movement (UGM) 0.50% - Independents & Others* 6.30 04 Vacant - 01
*All four seats were won by independents **After a by-election held on 3 January 2001, the vacant seat was filled by the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
07 December 2004 Presidential Election Registered Voters: 10,354,970 Total Votes (Voter Turnout): 8,813,908 (85.1%) Invalid/Blank Votes: 188,123 Total Valid Votes: 8,625,785
Candidate (Party) [Coalition] Number of Votes % of Votes John Agyekum Kufuor (NPP) 4,524,074 52.45% John Evans Atta Mills (NDC) 3,850,368 44.64% Edward Mahama (PNC) [Grand Coalition]165,375 1.92% George Aggudey (CPP) 85,968 1.00%
07 December 2004 Parliamentary Election Registered Voters: 10,354,970 Total Votes (Voter Turnout): Not Available (N/A)
Party Number of Seats (230) New Patriotic Party (NPP) 128 National Democratic Congress (NDC) 94 People's National Convention (PNC) 04 Convention People's Party (CPP) 03 Independent 01
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